Although the UK is all set to enter recession in 2023, it is going to be much shorter and easier than previously thought, as per the Bank of England.
As the price rises slow and the energy bills witness a dip, the overall slump is expected to just last more than a year rather than the previously thought two years.
Because of this, the unemployment might not rise as it was initially said with companies expected to make lesser layoffs. This fresh and positive forecast is because the central bank raised the interest rate from 3.5% to 4%.
Apparently, this happens to be the tenth increase in the borrowing costs at a stretch and thereby shall put pressure on many households which are already struggling as far as cost of living is concerned. The influence of this will be on borrowers as well, with high costs in loans and mortgages. That said, it should also mean better returns for savers.
The rise in cost will mean that homeowners with a typical tracker mortgage will end up paying around £49 extra a month. Those who have a standard variable rate mortgage shall be subject to an increase of £31. The bank has been surging the interest rate to take care of inflation, currently at 10.5%, which is close to a 40-year high and more than five times what it should have been at.
It is well to be noted that the higher rates of interest can push people to end up saving more and spending less, which ultimately should help stop the price rise.
Previously, the bank had opined that the UK would enter recession at the end of 2022, with its effect lasting up until mid-2024. The bank is now expecting this slump to be much shorter, starting in the first three months of 2023 and lasting until March next year.
Importantly, a recession is defined when the economy of a country contracts for two consecutive quarters. This leads to companies making less money and laying off more, which further leaves the government with less revenue in terms of taxes that can be spent on public services.
Overall, when we talk of the current scenario, Bank of England expects the economy to shrink not at the previously thought 3% but at 1%.
